Gold Flat at $4,168 After a Neutral Warsh as Brent Nears $110; Antam Rises to Rp2,572,000

17 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold neared $4,200 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal policy, but settled nearly flat around $4,167.90 as yields recovered and oil jumped. Antam rose Rp7,000 to Rp2,572,000, a second daily gain.

Friday: Near $4,200, Then Back

In the Asian session, spot gold rose to about $4,178.50 from about $4,148 on Thursday afternoon, with a daily high near $4,186. The trigger was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. In a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok, he said, "I don’t believe in pre-judging meetings," and gave no hint on rates.

The gain did not hold. By the end of the US session, Kitco put spot near $4,167.90, down $1.90, or 0.05%. Silver fell 0.78% to about $56.85. Gold failed to break the $4,185–$4,201 zone, which is buyers’ next target.

Pause Odds Rise, but Oil Holds Gold Back

Warsh’s neutral stance lowered October hike bets. The odds of a Fed hold at the October 27–28 meeting rose to about 83% from about 72% on Thursday. But markets still see a high chance of a December hike, and the policy rate currently sits at 3.75–4.00%.

The drag was oil and yields. Brent settled at $109.86 and WTI rose to about $101.41, above $100 for the first time since September, after Iran signaled further strikes following a US blockade of its ports. The 10-year Treasury yield recovered to about 5.12% from Thursday’s multi-week low. September import prices rose 1.1% on the month and 8.1% on the year, the largest since July 2022, while industrial production rose 0.7%, above expectations.

The Big Picture and the Level Map

This week gold fell to about $4,073 after the hot CPI, then bounced more than $90. Even so, gold is still down about 4% on the month and sits about $1,440, or 26%, below the $5,608 record set in January. The Nasdaq fell 2.1% on Friday and 4.5% on the week, but this time the stock selloff did not lift gold.

Kitco marks resistance at $4,176, then the $4,185–$4,201 zone, with targets of $4,218 and $4,240 on a break. Support sits at $4,148, $4,132 and $4,111. Next week: September housing starts (Tuesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and final October consumer sentiment (Friday), then the Fed decision on October 27–28 and September PCE on October 29.

Antam and Other Brands Today

Antam’s 1-gram bar rose Rp7,000 to Rp2,572,000, a second daily gain after a Rp4,000 rise on Friday. Buyback rose Rp12,000 to Rp2,387,000, narrowing the spread to Rp185,000, about 7.2% of the selling price. Compared with Wednesday’s Rp2,574,000, the selling price is now just Rp2,000 lower.

Galeri24 rose Rp8,000 to Rp2,517,000 with a Rp2,369,000 buyback: Rp55,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp148,000 spread, about 5.9%. UBS rose Rp8,000 to Rp2,541,000 with a Rp2,343,000 buyback: Rp31,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp198,000 spread, about 7.8%. Galeri24’s buyback is only Rp18,000 below Antam’s, so Galeri24 remains the most efficient for a buy-then-sell round trip.

Playbook: Waiting for Direction from the Fed and Oil

Gold is now squeezed between two forces. Fed pause odds for October are supportive, but oil near $110 keeps inflation and yields high, so a December hike remains on the table. Near-term scenarios: holding above $4,201 opens $4,218, then $4,240; losing $4,148 could test $4,132, then $4,111.

For rupiah investors, an Antam price that moves a few thousand rupiah a day leaves room to stay disciplined. Fixed-amount DCA averages the purchase price in either scenario, and the gap in spreads across brands, up to Rp50,000, is worth factoring in if you plan to sell back. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.