Gold Falls a Fourth Day to $4,119; Brent at $111 and CIBC Cuts Its Forecast

21 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold fell 0.48% to about $4,120 on Tuesday despite weak US housing data and held near $4,119 on Wednesday morning, a fourth losing session. Brent rose to about $111.30, its highest since May, and CIBC cut its Q4 forecast to $4,500. Antam fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,554,000.

Weak Housing Data, Gold Still Falls

US housing data on Tuesday were clearly weak. Kitco reported that September housing starts fell 5.2% to a 1.221 million annual rate, 7.4% below a year earlier, and building permits slipped to 1.400 million. A day earlier the NAHB housing market index dropped to 29, the lowest since June 2012.

Weak data usually help gold, but not enough this time. Spot gold fell 0.48% to about $4,120.10 according to Kitco, and on Wednesday morning Trading Economics had gold near $4,118.90, down 0.14%, a fourth straight losing session. Silver instead firmed: futures closed at $58.14, up 1.59%, and the gold-silver ratio fell nearly 2% to 71.11.

Oil at $111 Keeps Inflation Worries Alive

The pressure comes from oil. Kitco had Brent near $111.30, its highest since May, and WTI near $100.64. Trading Economics says oil rose after a diplomat played down reports of an imminent deal to end the US-Iran conflict, while attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz add to supply worries.

Expensive oil keeps inflation hot: September CPI rose 3.7% y/y and PPI 6.3%. Markets expect the Fed to hold on October 27–28 with about 83% odds, but put the chance of higher rates by December 9 at about 93.6%. The 10-year yield is near 5.13% and the dollar index near 101.77.

The Big Picture and Technical Levels

Trading Economics shows gold down about 5.6% on the month but still up about 0.45% on the year. Near $4,119, gold sits about 26.6% below its January record of $5,608.35. CIBC cut its Q4 average forecast to $4,500 from $6,500 and its 2027 forecast to $5,200, but still sees a recovery to that level next year.

Kitco’s levels: resistance at $4,141.97 and $4,145.47, then $4,199.08 and $4,217.40; support at $4,073.55 and $4,066.54, then $3,942.10. Agenda: pending home sales, jobless claims (Thursday), preliminary October manufacturing and services PMIs and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday).

Antam, Galeri24 and UBS All Fall

Antam’s 1-gram price fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,554,000, a second daily decline, with buyback down Rp10,000 to Rp2,369,000 per gram. The spread stays at Rp185,000, about 7.2%. The 10-gram bar now costs Rp25,035,000 and the 100-gram bar Rp249,612,000.

Galeri24 fell Rp16,000 to Rp2,510,000, with buyback down Rp17,000 to Rp2,363,000: Rp44,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp147,000 spread, about 5.9%. UBS fell Rp17,000 to Rp2,534,000 with a Rp2,338,000 buyback: Rp20,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp196,000 spread, about 7.7%. Antam’s buyback is back Rp6,000 above Galeri24’s.

Playbook: $4,073 Is the Next Line

Near-term scenarios: regaining $4,141.97 and $4,145.47 opens the way to $4,199.08; failing to hold could test $4,073.55, then $4,066.54. Oil, yields and the dollar remain the drivers. Structurally, CIBC notes that central banks bought 345 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2026, 289 tonnes of it in Q2, and sees gold as a strategic reserve asset.

For rupiah investors, Antam has fallen Rp20,000 in two days. Fixed-amount DCA averages the purchase price in either scenario, and the different spreads, from about 5.9% to 7.7%, are worth factoring in if you plan to sell back. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.