Gold Stalls at $4,161 Ahead of CPI as the Dollar Sits at an 18-Month High; Antam Flat at Rp2,574,000

14 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Spot gold fell 0.3% on Tuesday as the dollar held near its highest level since April 2025, even as yields eased. Tonight the US September CPI is the test: annual inflation is expected to rise to about 3.7%. Antam is flat at Rp2,574,000 after a Rp20,000 drop the day before.

Tuesday: Up in the Morning, Down by the Close

Gold firmed early in the US session. Kitco’s morning report put spot near $4,186.90, up 0.39%, as the dollar, yields and oil all retreated. But the gain did not hold. Spot settled down 0.3% at $4,161.20, while December futures edged up 0.2% to $4,184.30.

The drag was the dollar. The dollar index touched its highest level since April 2025 before easing to about 102.4. A strong dollar makes gold dearer for buyers outside the US, and traders were reluctant to take big positions before the inflation data.

Yields Ease, but Hike Bets Have Not Gone Away

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.9 basis points to 5.209%, extending its retreat from last week’s peak. September jobs data was also weak: just 29,000 new jobs, 4.2% unemployment, and July and August revised down by a combined 60,000. Normally that mix supports gold.

The problem is that the Fed has not softened. Markets price about a 19% chance of an October hike and about 85% of at least one hike by December. New York Fed President John Williams expects one more hike this year, though he sees no need for further hikes in 2027. Brent held above $104 after Houthi attacks on a Saudi airport, keeping inflation worries alive.

Tonight’s CPI and the Level Map

The US September CPI comes out on Wednesday at 08:30 New York time, or 19:30 WIB. Annual inflation is expected to rise to about 3.7% on energy prices, while core inflation is expected to slow. A tame core reading could lower December hike odds and give gold room. A hot core reading could revive hike bets and pressure gold. PPI and retail sales follow on Thursday.

Kitco marks resistance at $4,207, then the $4,217–$4,227 zone, then $4,273 and $4,316. Support sits at $4,181 and $4,155, then $4,110 and $4,067, near last week’s low of about $4,066. Gold is still down about 3% on the month and about $1,447, or 26%, below the $5,608 record set in January.

Antam and Other Brands Today

Antam’s 1-gram bar is flat at Rp2,574,000 on Wednesday (checked at 08:48 WIB), the same as Tuesday, when it fell Rp20,000. Compared with Saturday’s Rp2,592,000, it is down Rp18,000. Buyback holds at Rp2,383,000, also Rp18,000 below Saturday, so the spread stays at Rp191,000, about 7.4% of the selling price.

Galeri24 is at Rp2,521,000 with a Rp2,374,000 buyback: Rp53,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp147,000 spread, about 5.8%. UBS is at Rp2,546,000 with a Rp2,348,000 buyback: Rp28,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp198,000 spread, about 7.8%. Galeri24’s buyback is now only Rp9,000 below Antam’s, so Galeri24 remains the most efficient for a buy-then-sell round trip.

Playbook: Let the Data Speak

Behind the daily swings, structural demand stays strong. Global gold ETFs posted record Q3 inflows of $31 billion, with holdings up 211 tonnes, and China’s central bank extended its gold buying to 23 straight months. Near-term scenarios: a hot core CPI tests $4,155, then $4,110; a tame core CPI opens $4,207, then the $4,217–$4,227 zone.

For rupiah investors, the flat Antam price is a pause before big data. There is no need to guess the CPI outcome: fixed-amount DCA averages the purchase price in either scenario, and the gap in spreads across brands, up to Rp51,000, is worth factoring in if you plan to sell back. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.