ISM Prices at 74: A 5.31% Yield Keeps Gold Below $4,150

6 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

US services activity slowed to 54.9, but costs rose at the fastest pace since 2022. The 10-year yield held at 5.31% and gold stalled near $4,135 ahead of the FOMC minutes. Antam fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,570,000.

Services Data: Slower, but Costs Heat Up

September ISM Services fell to 54.9 from 55.4, slightly below the 55.0 forecast. New orders fell 1.1 points to 59.8, while the employment index rose to 50.1, back in expansion for the first time in three months. At first glance, that is data that usually suits gold.

The problem is the prices index, which rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022 and the sixth reading above 70 in seven months. Respondents cited tariffs and fuel costs. Gold was at $4,141.73 after the release, then Kitco had spot at $4,137.70 (down 0.05%) late in the session.

Why Gold Can’t Rally

Hotter costs keep yields high. The US 10-year yield held near 5.31%, the highest since April 2002. Because gold pays no interest, yields this high raise the opportunity cost of holding it. The dollar index also rose to 102.18, near its strongest since April 2025, helped by political and fiscal uncertainty in Europe.

There is support from the other side. After weak jobs data, markets price about a 78% chance the Fed holds rates this month, and Kitco notes October hike odds are down to 22–24%. Oil also fell: Brent slipped 1.9% to $100.32 and WTI 1.8% to $89.43. The result is gold moving sideways, not falling.

The Big Picture and the Level Map

On Tuesday morning gold was at $4,134.47, down 0.13%. Over the month it has fallen 6.14% and sits about $1,474, or 26%, below the $5,608 record set in January. Kitco marks support at $4,101.35 and resistance at $4,164.44, then $4,203.61. While yields stay above 5.3%, the top of that range is hard to break.

The next test is Wednesday’s release of the September FOMC minutes. Then come jobless claims on Thursday, consumer sentiment on Friday and US CPI on October 14. Minutes that stress inflation could push gold to $4,100; a more patient tone could open the way to $4,164–4,204.

Antam and Other Brands Today

Antam’s 1-gram bar fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,570,000 after rising to Rp2,580,000 yesterday. Buyback also fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,376,000, so the spread holds at Rp194,000, about 7.5% of the selling price. Antam is now about 19% below its Rp3,168,000 record of January 29, a milder drop than global gold’s 26% in dollar terms.

Galeri24’s 1-gram bar is at Rp2,513,000 with a Rp2,369,000 buyback: Rp57,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp144,000 spread, about 5.7%. UBS is at Rp2,536,000 with a Rp2,343,000 buyback, Rp34,000 cheaper than Antam but with a Rp193,000 spread, about 7.6%. For regular buying, a smaller spread means reaching breakeven sooner.

Playbook: Waiting for the FOMC Minutes

Scenario one, hawkish minutes and higher yields: $4,101 gets tested and Antam could follow lower. Scenario two, patient minutes and a weaker dollar: gold has room toward $4,164, then $4,204. Scenario three, markets wait for October 14 CPI and gold drifts sideways around $4,100–4,165.

For rupiah investors, Antam’s milder decline than global gold shows the exchange rate acting as a cushion. Fixed-amount DCA with an eye on the spread still makes more sense than guessing the minutes. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.