Gold Holds Near $4,000 as Fed Week Opens, Antam Steady at Rp2,540,000

26 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold opened Monday around $3,986–3,994, near its lowest in more than three months, while Brent slipped to $114.54. Markets expect the Fed to hold on Wednesday, but put the odds of a December hike at about 80%. Antam’s 1-gram price is unchanged at Rp2,540,000, down Rp34,000 on the week.

Monday Morning: No Rebound

The gold market reopened without a change in direction. Reuters had spot gold at $3,986.16 early in the Asian session, slightly lower, and Trading Economics shows about $3,993.79. Gold is still near the more-than-three-month low it hit last Friday.

CNBC Indonesia had spot at $3,999.16 in the morning, up a slight 0.1%, so the price is moving in a narrow range just below $4,000. Gold is down 2.95% on the month. A narrow range like this is normal ahead of a week with a central bank decision and major inflation data.

Oil Eases, Rates Don’t

Oil, the main driver of last week’s decline, eased a little. Brent fell 1.87% to $114.54 and WTI fell 2.13% to $101.07. But the 10-year Treasury yield is still at 4.967% and the dollar index at 101.60, so the cost of holding non-yielding gold remains high.

Markets expect the Fed to hold at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday with about 90% odds, but put the odds of a December hike at about 80%. Five major central banks set rates this week. The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold, while the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ are priced for a possible hike.

Schedule and Key Levels

The Fed decision is announced on Wednesday, October 28 at 2 pm US time, or 01:00 WIB on Thursday. September PCE and third-quarter GDP follow on Thursday, October 29 at 8:30 am US time (19:30 WIB). Antam’s price can only reflect the two events in its Thursday and Friday morning updates.

Levels watched: intraday resistance at $4,021–4,039, then $4,075; support at $3,963 and $3,946, with a downside target of $3,890. In a soft scenario (cool PCE, lower December odds), $4,150 opens up. In a hawkish one, $3,890 is the target. Gold is now about 28.8% below its $5,608.35 January record.

Antam and Other Brands

Logam Mulia opened the week unchanged: Antam’s 1-gram bar stays at Rp2,540,000 with a Rp2,335,000 buyback, the same as Friday. The spread is Rp205,000, or about 8.1%. On the week, the 1-gram price is down Rp34,000 from Rp2,574,000 on October 19.

Galeri24 is at Rp2,467,000 with a Rp2,326,000 buyback (a Rp141,000 spread, about 5.7%), and UBS at Rp2,491,000 with a Rp2,301,000 buyback (a Rp190,000 spread, about 7.6%). Galeri24 is Rp73,000 a gram cheaper than Antam, and UBS Rp49,000 cheaper. None of the three has moved since the weekend.

How to Approach This Week

A flat Antam price does not mean the risk is gone. Global gold can still move sharply after the Fed decision and the PCE data, and that move will hit Antam’s price all at once. A spread of about 8.1% also means the price has to rise a fair way before a new position breaks even.

For regular savers, buying in steps (DCA) reduces the risk of entering just before a volatile day, and comparing spreads between brands can save tens of thousands of rupiah per gram. This article is educational analysis, not personal financial advice. Match decisions to your own goals and risk profile.