Gold Opens the Week Slightly Higher at $4,175; Fed Pause Odds at 84%, Oil Stays Above $100

19 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold rose 0.20% to about $4,175 on Monday morning after closing at $4,164 on Friday. The odds of a Fed hold rose to about 84%, but Brent at $109.86 keeps inflation worries alive. Antam rose Rp2,000 to Rp2,574,000, a third daily gain.

Monday Morning: A Small Gain from $4,164

Spot gold opened the week firmer. Trading Economics put it at about $4,174.77, up $8.38, or 0.20%, on the day, and Mitrade’s analysis had gold near $4,183 on Monday morning. The gain extends the rebound from the $4,064–$4,074 support zone touched last week.

Last Friday was a different story. Spot gold reached $4,199.50, then closed at $4,164.10 in New York, down $5.70, or 0.14%, as a tech selloff deepened: the Nasdaq fell 2.1% on the day and 4.5% on the week, its worst week since June. December gold futures settled at $4,181.10, up 0.26%.

The Fed Is Expected to Pause, but Oil Holds Gold Back

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal of an October rate hike. The odds of a Fed hold at the October 27–28 meeting rose to about 83% from 72% according to Mitrade, and about 84% according to Trading Economics. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.097%, Treasuries had their best week since mid-February, and the dollar was headed for its first weekly decline in five weeks.

Oil is still the brake. Brent settled at $109.86 and December WTI rose 2.61% to $99.02, while front-month WTI broke above $100 for the first time since September as attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz intensified. US import prices rose 8.1% y/y in September, the most since July 2022. Expensive oil strengthens the case for a restrictive Fed, and markets still lean toward further tightening in December.

The Big Picture and Technical Levels

Trading Economics shows gold down about 3.9% on the month and about 4.2% on the year. Near $4,175, gold sits about 25.6% below its January record of $5,608.35. Last week’s range was wide, from a $4,073.35 low on Wednesday to near $4,200 on Friday.

Mitrade’s levels: first resistance at $4,185–$4,195, then $4,215–$4,227 and $4,276–$4,289. First support at $4,141–$4,150, then $4,104–$4,113 and $4,064–$4,074. This week’s agenda: housing starts (Tuesday), jobless claims (Thursday), October flash PMIs (Friday), then the October 27–28 Fed meeting.

Antam Rises a Third Day, Galeri24 and UBS Hold

Antam’s 1-gram price rose Rp2,000 to Rp2,574,000, a third straight daily gain, with buyback up Rp2,000 to Rp2,389,000 per gram. The spread stays at Rp185,000, about 7.2%. The 10-gram bar now costs Rp25,235,000 and the 100-gram bar Rp251,612,000.

Galeri24 held at Rp2,523,000 with a Rp2,375,000 buyback: Rp51,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp148,000 spread, about 5.9%. UBS held at Rp2,548,000 with a Rp2,349,000 buyback: Rp26,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp199,000 spread, about 7.8%. Antam’s buyback is now Rp14,000 above Galeri24’s and Rp40,000 above UBS’s.

Playbook: Waiting for the Fed Below $4,200

Near-term scenarios: breaking $4,195, then $4,227, opens the way back above $4,200; losing $4,141 could test $4,104, then $4,064. The drivers are clear: oil prices and the direction of yields ahead of the Fed meeting. High pause odds help, but oil above $100 keeps a December tightening on the table.

For rupiah investors, a Rp2,000 daily gain does not change the big picture. Fixed-amount DCA averages the purchase price in either scenario, and the different spreads, from about 5.9% to 7.8%, are worth factoring in if you plan to sell back. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.