Gold Rebounds to $4,171 Despite Hot CPI and PPI; Antam Edges Up to Rp2,565,000

16 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

A hot September CPI briefly knocked gold to a one-week low on Wednesday, but on Thursday spot settled up 1.59% at $4,171 as yields and the dollar retreated amid a global equity selloff. Antam fell Rp13,000, then rose Rp4,000 to Rp2,565,000.

Two Days, Two Directions

On Wednesday night, the US September CPI came in hotter than expected: annual inflation of 3.7% versus a 3.6% forecast, and core inflation up 0.3% on the month, above the 0.2% forecast. December gold futures fell about $69, from $4,177.30 to $4,107.90, and spot dropped to a one-week low.

Thursday turned the other way. September PPI jumped 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, far above the 5.5% forecast and the largest annual gain since December 2022. Yet gold still rose. Spot settled up 1.59% at $4,171 and December futures rose 1.5% to $4,170, erasing all of Wednesday’s drop.

Why Hot Data Did Not Sink Gold

The key was yields and the dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.08%, its lowest in about three weeks, and the dollar index eased to about 102.1 from Wednesday’s 18-month high. A global equity selloff also pushed money into safe havens: South Korea’s Kospi plunged 7.6% and Japan’s Nikkei 4.9%.

Most of the PPI jump came from energy, which rose 10.8% and accounted for more than 80% of the monthly gain, so gold drew interest again as an inflation hedge. Retail sales rose 0.8%, but the control group rose just 0.1%, a sign of weaker spending outside fuel. Markets price about a 29–32% chance of a rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting and about 90% by December.

The Big Picture and the Level Map

This rebound has not changed the big picture. Gold is still down about 4% on the month and sits about $1,437, or 26%, below the $5,608 record set in January. Brent held near $104, so energy-driven inflation pressure has not eased and rate-hike odds remain high.

Kitco marks resistance at $4,181, then $4,217 and $4,267. Support sits at $4,128 and $4,107, then $4,088, with the $4,000–$4,075 zone as a deeper floor. On Friday the market watches a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and US September industrial production data.

Antam and Other Brands Today

Antam’s 1-gram bar fell Rp13,000 to Rp2,561,000 on Thursday, then rose Rp4,000 to Rp2,565,000 on Friday. Buyback rose Rp5,000 to Rp2,375,000, leaving a Rp190,000 spread, about 7.4% of the selling price. Compared with Wednesday’s Rp2,574,000, the selling price is still Rp9,000 lower.

Galeri24 is at Rp2,509,000 with a Rp2,362,000 buyback: Rp56,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp147,000 spread, about 5.9%. UBS is at Rp2,533,000 with a Rp2,337,000 buyback: Rp32,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp196,000 spread, about 7.7%. Galeri24’s buyback is only Rp13,000 below Antam’s, so Galeri24 remains the most efficient for a buy-then-sell round trip.

Playbook: Inflation’s Two Faces

This week showed inflation’s two faces for gold. Hot inflation raises rate-hike bets and pressures gold, but when it comes with falling yields, a weaker dollar and shaky stocks, gold is sought as protection instead. Near-term scenarios: holding above $4,181 opens $4,217; failing there could test $4,128, then $4,107.

For rupiah investors, an Antam price that moves only a few thousand rupiah a day leaves room to stay disciplined. Fixed-amount DCA averages the purchase price in either scenario, and the gap in spreads across brands, up to Rp49,000, is worth factoring in if you plan to sell back. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.