Gold Reclaims $4,000 Ahead of the Fed, Antam Up Rp10,000 to Rp2,550,000

27 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold is back above $4,000 after touching $3,975 last Friday, helped by lower oil. Markets expect the Fed to hold on Wednesday, but put the odds of a December hike at about 82%. Antam’s 1-gram price rose Rp10,000 to Rp2,550,000, its first rise after a week of declines.

A Small Recovery Above $4,000

Last Friday gold fell to $3,975, its lowest since July 20. On Monday, Kitco had spot up 0.50% to about $4,014.49, and gold closed back above $4,000 in the US session. The trigger was not new data but cooler oil prices on diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz.

On Tuesday morning, Trading Economics shows gold at about $4,010, down a slight 0.16%. So the recovery is still small: gold remains down 2.54% on the month. The market is waiting for the Fed before taking big positions.

Oil Eases, but the Rate-Hike Threat Remains

Brent settled down 0.8% at $115.81 and WTI was near $102. Cheaper oil eases inflation worries, and the 10-year Treasury yield is holding below 4.98%, down from a 5.31% peak. For gold, which pays no interest, slightly lower yields ease the pressure.

But the policy path has not changed. Markets expect the Fed to hold at 3.75–4.00% this week (about 90% odds), but CME FedWatch puts the odds of a December hike at about 82%. The Cleveland Fed nowcast shows core PCE at 3.1% and headline PCE at 3.6% year on year, still far above the 2% target.

The Big Picture and Levels to Watch

At about $4,010, gold is still about 28.5% below its $5,608.35 record from January 2026. The nearest resistance is $4,032, then $4,075; a break higher opens targets of $4,160–4,180. Support is at $3,963 and $3,946, with downside targets of $3,890, then $3,800.

The agenda is busy: September durable goods tonight at 19:30 WIB and October consumer confidence at 21:00 WIB. The Fed decision is out at 01:00 WIB Thursday, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Q3 GDP and September PCE follow on Thursday at 19:30 WIB. Warsh’s tone on December likely matters more than the hold itself.

Antam Up, Galeri24 and UBS Steady

Antam’s 1-gram price rose Rp10,000 to Rp2,550,000, its first rise after a week of declines from Rp2,574,000 on October 19. Buyback also rose Rp10,000 to Rp2,345,000 per gram, so the spread stays at Rp205,000, about 8.0%. The 10-gram bar is now Rp25,050,000.

Galeri24 is unchanged at Rp2,467,000 (buyback Rp2,326,000, spread about 5.7%), and UBS stays at Rp2,491,000 (buyback Rp2,301,000, spread about 7.6%). Since only Antam rose, its gap over Galeri24 widens to Rp83,000 per gram, and over UBS to Rp59,000.

Fed-Week Playbook

Two main scenarios: if Warsh sounds patient and Thursday’s PCE is cooler than the nowcast, gold has room to test $4,075, then $4,160. If the Fed signals a December hike and PCE runs hot, support at $3,946 and $3,890 is back in focus. With Antam’s spread at about 8%, daily moves of a few tens of dollars rarely cover the cost of a short-term round trip.

For regular savers, a volatile week like this is a reason to spread purchases out (DCA) instead of guessing the single best day, and to compare spreads across brands before buying. This article is educational analysis, not personal financial advice; match your decisions to your own goals and risk profile.