A Deciding Week for Gold: ISM Services, FOMC Minutes and the $4,100 Test

4 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold ended the week at $4,140, down 3.09%, and Kitco’s survey shows Wall Street analysts leaning bearish. This week ISM Services, the FOMC minutes and two bond auctions could decide whether $4,100 holds. Antam stays at Rp2,574,000 over the weekend.

Last Week in Numbers

Spot gold opened last week at $4,277.90 and briefly touched $4,280.56, but closed Friday at $4,140.52. That is a 3.09% weekly drop and a second straight weekly loss. The weekly low of $4,110.95 sat only about $11 above $4,100, the level many analysts call the main line of defense.

Weak jobs data, just 29,000 jobs in September, briefly cut the odds of an October Fed hike to about 20%. But Trading Economics notes that December hike odds remain above 80%. That is why Friday’s spike did not last: markets see a pause, not the end of the tightening cycle.

Sentiment Turns Cautious

Kitco’s weekly survey shows a shift in mood. Of 13 Wall Street analysts, 6 expect gold to fall this week, only 3 expect a rise and 4 are neutral. On Main Street, 85 of 182 respondents are still bullish (47%) and 60 bearish (33%), but for the first time since late July that bullish majority is gone.

Analysts are split too. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn sees room for a move to $4,280–4,300 and is looking for a buying opportunity in October before the strong November–January season. On the other side, Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro sees a possible test of $4,000. A scenario range this wide is normal when markets are waiting for data.

This Week’s Agenda and the Level Map

On Monday, September ISM Services is forecast at 55.1 from 55.4; the prices and employment components will matter more than the headline. Wednesday brings the minutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and a 10-year bond auction, Thursday jobless claims (forecast 200,000) and a 30-year auction, then Friday Michigan consumer sentiment. US CPI comes on October 14.

The auctions matter because the 10-year yield is already at its highest since 2002, and the dollar index at 101.93 is headed for a third weekly gain, up 3.06% over the month. Weak auction demand could push yields higher still. On the chart, $4,100 is the main support with the June low of $4,009 below it, while $4,200 and then $4,280–4,300 act as resistance.

Antam Holds Over the Weekend, Other Brands Move

Logam Mulia does not update prices on Saturday and Sunday, so the Antam reference stays at Rp2,574,000 per gram with a Rp2,380,000 buyback. The spread is Rp194,000, about 7.5% of the selling price. Over last week, Antam fell Rp23,000 from Rp2,597,000 on Monday, about 0.9%, far less than global gold’s 3.09% drop in dollar terms.

Galeri24 did move today: its 1-gram bar fell Rp5,000 to Rp2,506,000 with a Rp2,364,000 buyback, making it Rp68,000 cheaper than Antam with a spread of Rp142,000, about 5.7%. UBS fell Rp5,000 to Rp2,530,000 with a Rp2,338,000 buyback, a spread of Rp192,000, about 7.6%. At Pegadaian, a 1-gram Antam bar sells for Rp2,613,000.

Playbook: Three Scenarios for the Week

Scenario one, hawkish services data and FOMC minutes with rising yields: $4,100 gets tested and $4,009 becomes the next reference. Scenario two, softer data and smooth auctions: gold has room to return to $4,200. Scenario three, mixed data: gold drifts sideways ahead of CPI. The demand base remains, with central banks buying 289 tonnes in Q2 2026.

For rupiah investors, Antam’s weekend pause gives time to build a plan rather than guess direction. Fixed-amount DCA and choosing a brand with a small spread remain the simplest way through a data-heavy week. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.