Gold at $3,994 Into Fed Week: Decision Wednesday, PCE Thursday

25 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold ended the week at $3,993.96, almost 4% lower on the week, with Brent at $116.72 and the 10-year yield near 5%. This week the market waits for the Fed decision on October 28 and PCE data on October 29. Antam’s price did not change on Sunday, while Galeri24 and UBS fell about Rp10,000.

The Starting Point: Below $4,000

The gold market is closed for the weekend, so Friday’s price is the starting point for the week ahead. Trading Economics shows gold at $3,993.96, down 0.77% on the day, almost 4% on the week and 6.57% on the month. That is the lowest since mid-July, with an intraday low of about $3,975.

Silver is weaker still. At about $53.90, it fell below $54 for the first time in 2026 and sits about 55% below its January peak near $121. Thursday’s drop alone was about 2.8% for gold, or roughly $120.

Oil, Yields and the Dollar Still Weigh

Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, up 3.14% and its highest settlement since April 29. Expensive oil makes the market worry that US inflation stays high, and so do rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.0% and the 2-year near 4.77%.

The dollar index is about 101.8. For gold, which pays no interest, a 5% yield and a strong dollar are a heavy mix: holding US bonds becomes more attractive, and gold costs more for buyers outside the US.

Two Days That Decide It

On Wednesday, October 28 at 2 pm US time, the Fed announces its decision with the range at 3.75–4.00%, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. CME FedWatch puts a hold at about 90% and a hike at about 10%. December matters more: Trading Economics puts the odds of a hike by December at about 80%.

On Thursday, October 29 at 8:30 am US time, September PCE and third-quarter GDP come out together. The preliminary October PMIs were already firm: manufacturing at 56.0 (55.6 expected) and the composite at 57.6. If PCE is also hot, the market could grow more confident in a December hike.

Levels and Scenarios

Kitco has resistance at $4,075 and support at $3,963 and $3,946, with a downside target of $3,890. The base case is gold churning in a $3,946–$4,075 range into the data. A soft scenario, with cool PCE and lower December hike odds, opens the way to $4,150. A hawkish one, with the Fed signaling a December hike, hot PCE and oil above $115, points to $3,890.

The bigger picture: gold is about 28.8% below its $5,608.35 January record. Producers still earn a lot, though. Newmont reported all-in sustaining costs of $1,454/oz in the third quarter, far below the current price.

Antam, Galeri24 and UBS

Logam Mulia did not update its prices on Sunday. Antam’s latest 1-gram price is Rp2,540,000 with a Rp2,335,000 buyback, a spread of Rp205,000, or about 8.1%. The next update is due Monday, October 26 at 08:30 WIB, the first chance for gold’s drop below $4,000 to show up in Antam’s price.

Galeri24 fell Rp11,000 to Rp2,467,000 with a Rp2,326,000 buyback (a Rp141,000 spread, about 5.7%). UBS fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,491,000 with a Rp2,301,000 buyback (a Rp190,000 spread, about 7.6%). Galeri24 is now Rp73,000 a gram cheaper than Antam, and UBS Rp49,000 cheaper.

How to Approach This Week

Structural demand has not gone away: central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026, up 62% year on year, even as North American ETFs saw 61 tonnes of outflows in the first half. A week with two major releases is usually volatile, and Antam’s price reacts only a day later.

For regular savers, buying in steps (DCA) reduces the risk of entering on the wrong day, and the spread gap between brands is worth comparing before buying. This article is educational analysis, not personal financial advice. Match decisions to your own goals and risk profile.