Hawkish FOMC Minutes: Gold Tested at $4,100, Antam Falls to Rp2,565,000

8 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

The Fed minutes showed most officials expect one more rate hike this year. Gold fell 1.34% to $4,108.8, a one-month low, before recovering to about $4,137. Antam fell Rp15,000 and its spread widened.

Wednesday: Gold Breaks Below $4,100

The pressure was there before the minutes came out. Gold slid to $4,138.10 in the US morning, then briefly broke below $4,100, its lowest since August 5, with an intraday drop of more than 2%. It closed down 1.34% at $4,108.8, its lowest in about a month.

The minutes of the September 15–16 meeting then confirmed the hawkish tone. Every official backed the September hike to 3.75–4.00%, and most expect one more hike before year-end. On Thursday morning gold recovered 0.63% to about $4,137, but it is still close to its lowest since early August.

2002-Level Yields, a Strong Dollar, $100 Oil

Three pressures arrived at once. The 10-year yield touched 5.32%, a level last seen in 2002, and the 30-year yield was around 5.70%. The dollar index is near 102.2, close to its strongest since early 2025. Brent is back above $100 and rose to about $102 on Thursday on US-Iran tensions.

For gold, which pays no interest, the combination is heavy. High yields raise the cost of holding gold, a strong dollar makes it pricier for buyers outside the US, and expensive oil keeps alive the inflation worries that keep the Fed hawkish. Markets expect the Fed to hold on October 28, but put the odds of a December hike at about 78%.

The Big Picture and the Level Map

Over the month gold has fallen almost 6% and sits about $1,470, or 26%, below the $5,608 record set in January. $4,100 is now the main line of defense. A convincing break would put the $4,000–4,020 zone next in line. Above, resistance sits at $4,180–4,190.

Next up: US jobless claims on Thursday evening WIB and consumer sentiment on Friday. Weak labor data had lowered the odds of a hike. Stronger data could firm up the December hike scenario and pressure gold again.

Antam and Other Brands Today

Antam’s 1-gram bar fell Rp15,000 to Rp2,565,000, erasing yesterday’s Rp10,000 gain. Buyback fell further, by Rp25,000 to Rp2,366,000, so the spread widened from Rp189,000 to Rp199,000, about 7.8% of the selling price. That means today’s buyers need a bigger price rise to break even.

Galeri24 actually edged up to Rp2,516,000 with a Rp2,368,000 buyback: Rp49,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp148,000 spread, about 5.9%. Galeri24’s buyback is now even Rp2,000 above Antam’s. UBS is at Rp2,539,000 with a Rp2,343,000 buyback, Rp26,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp196,000 spread, about 7.7%.

Playbook: Dip Buyers Are Still There

Behind the Fed pressure, structural demand has not gone away. SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 1,056.27 tonnes on October 5 from 1,042.36 tonnes at end-August. Central banks bought 39 tonnes in August, and the People’s Bank of China added 20.2 tonnes, its 22nd straight month of net buying. Near-term scenarios: strong data tests $4,100, then $4,000–4,020; weak data opens the way to $4,180–4,190.

For rupiah investors, lower prices look tempting, but Antam’s wider spread eats into the benefit. Fixed-amount DCA helps average the purchase price without guessing the bottom, and comparing brands is still worth doing. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.