Gold Falls a Third Day to $4,139; 5.14% Yields and 94% December Hike Odds

20 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold closed Monday down 0.63% near $4,137.80 and held near $4,139 on Tuesday morning, breaking $4,142 support. The dollar firmed, the 10-year yield rose to about 5.14%, and markets price about a 94% chance of a December Fed hike. Antam fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,564,000.

Monday: Morning Gains Fade, a 0.63% Loss at the Close

Gold held up on Monday morning in the US. Kitco had spot gold near $4,159.70, down just $4.40, or 0.11%, as oil prices and Treasury yields eased. But Kitco’s evening report, cited by the Rio Times, showed gold closing near $4,137.80, down 0.63%, pressured by a firmer dollar and rising yields.

On Tuesday morning the pressure continued, if only slightly. Trading Economics had gold near $4,139.17, down 0.04%, and called it a third straight daily decline, with prices moving toward $4,100. The GLD gold ETF fell 0.61% and the GDX miners ETF 1.41% on Monday, while silver bucked the move, rising 0.12% to about $56.93.

A Fed Pause in October, but December Looks Ever More Certain

The Fed is expected to hold at its October 27–28 meeting: Kitco puts the odds of an October hike at only about 15%. The problem is the next meeting. The odds of a 25 bp hike in December were about 89% according to Kitco on Monday morning, and Trading Economics now puts them at about 94%. Inflation is still hot: September CPI rose 3.7% y/y and PPI 6.3%.

The 10-year Treasury yield turned higher to about 5.14% from about 5.08% on Monday morning, when it had been near a four-week low. The dollar index is near 101.9. Oil remains expensive: Kitco had Brent near $107.55 and WTI at $97.19 on Monday morning, and Trading Economics says higher oil prices are adding to inflation worries.

The Big Picture and Technical Levels

Trading Economics shows gold down about 4.7% on the month but still up about 0.4% on the year. Near $4,139, gold sits about 26.2% below its January record of $5,608.35. Over the past week gold has been stuck in a $4,100–$4,200 range, and it is now back in the lower half.

Kitco’s levels: gold is already below the $4,150.72 and $4,142.03 supports, so the next downside targets are $4,118.63, then $4,066.71. First resistance is $4,170.55, then $4,193.95 and the $4,193.95–$4,202.64 zone. This week’s agenda: housing starts (Tuesday), jobless claims (Thursday), preliminary business activity surveys and final October consumer sentiment (Friday).

Antam Falls Rp10,000, Galeri24 and UBS Edge Up

Antam’s 1-gram price fell Rp10,000 to Rp2,564,000, ending a three-day winning streak, with buyback down Rp10,000 to Rp2,379,000 per gram. The spread stays at Rp185,000, about 7.2%. The 10-gram bar now costs Rp25,135,000 and the 100-gram bar Rp250,612,000.

Galeri24 instead rose Rp3,000 to Rp2,526,000, with buyback up Rp5,000 to Rp2,380,000: Rp38,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp146,000 spread, about 5.8%. UBS rose Rp3,000 to Rp2,551,000 with a Rp2,354,000 buyback: Rp13,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp197,000 spread, about 7.7%. Galeri24’s buyback is now Rp1,000 above Antam’s.

Playbook: Testing $4,100 Ahead of the Fed

Near-term scenarios: regaining $4,150.72, then $4,170.55, opens the way to $4,193.95; failing to hold could test $4,118.63, then $4,066.71. Yields, the dollar and oil remain the drivers. Structurally, Kitco notes that Bloomberg-tracked gold ETF holdings hit a 2026 peak of 101.3 million ounces on October 8 and have stayed above 101 million ounces since.

For rupiah investors, a Rp10,000 daily drop does not change the big picture. Fixed-amount DCA averages the purchase price in either scenario, and the different spreads, from about 5.8% to 7.7%, are worth factoring in if you plan to sell back. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.