Yields Ease, Oil Rebounds: Gold Whipsaws Around $4,150 Ahead of the FOMC Minutes

7 Oct 2026 · EmasKuy Team

Gold rose to $4,165 as US yields eased from 24-year highs, then slipped back to $4,146 as oil climbed on tanker attacks near Hormuz. Antam rose Rp10,000 to Rp2,580,000 and its spread narrowed.

Tuesday: Yields Ease, Gold Rises

Gold got some breathing room on Tuesday. The US 10-year yield eased to the 5.27–5.3% area from a 24-year high, and the dollar slipped from an 18-month peak. Gold was at $4,175.30 (up 0.86%) in the US morning, then Kitco had spot at $4,165.40, up 0.63%, late in the session.

The backdrop is still weak jobs data: September payrolls rose just 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2% and wages up 0.1% on the month. That keeps the odds of a rate hike this month at 19–23%. But ISM Services showed a prices index of 74.0, so inflation worries have not gone away.

Wednesday: Oil Erases Part of the Gain

On Wednesday morning gold fell 0.44% to $4,146.42, back below $4,150. Oil was the trigger: Brent rose 0.82% to $101.41 after UKMTO counted nine Iranian tanker-attack incidents in the Strait of Hormuz this month, and the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Khamis Mushait.

Why does oil weigh on gold, when gold is often seen as a haven in conflicts? Right now markets read expensive oil as fuel for inflation, which keeps yields high and leaves the Fed room to hike again. The dollar index also holds near 102.06. For gold, which pays no interest, that is pressure.

The Big Picture and the Level Map

Over the month gold has fallen 4.81% and sits about $1,462, or 26%, below the $5,608 record set in January. Kitco marks resistance at $4,180–4,190, then $4,214 and $4,238. Nearest support is $4,142.71, then the $4,000–4,020 zone. Wednesday morning’s price sits just above that first support.

The main test is the September FOMC minutes, Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, or early Thursday WIB. Markets price about an 80% chance the Fed holds rates this month, but Kitco notes the odds of a December hike are materially higher. After that come jobless claims on Thursday and consumer sentiment on Friday.

Antam and Other Brands Today

Antam’s 1-gram bar rose Rp10,000 to Rp2,580,000, following global gold’s Tuesday gain. Buyback rose more, by Rp15,000 to Rp2,391,000, so the spread narrowed from Rp194,000 to Rp189,000, about 7.3% of the selling price. Antam is still about 19% below its Rp3,168,000 record of January 29.

Galeri24 actually edged lower to Rp2,510,000 with a Rp2,366,000 buyback: Rp70,000 cheaper than Antam with a Rp144,000 spread, about 5.7%. UBS is at Rp2,534,000 with a Rp2,340,000 buyback, Rp46,000 cheaper than Antam but with a Rp194,000 spread, about 7.7%. The gap between Antam and Galeri24 has widened from Rp57,000 yesterday.

Playbook: Central Banks Keep Buying

Behind the daily swings, structural demand is still there. Central banks bought a net 39 tonnes of gold in August, led by China with 20 tonnes and Poland and Uzbekistan with 8 tonnes each. Year to date, Poland has added 98 tonnes and China 80 tonnes. Near-term scenarios: hawkish minutes and higher oil test $4,142, then $4,000–4,020; patient minutes open the way to $4,180–4,190.

For rupiah investors, Antam’s slightly narrower spread helps a little, but the Rp70,000 gap with Galeri24 is still worth comparing before buying. Fixed-amount DCA makes more sense than guessing what the minutes will say. This article is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice. Tailor it to your own risk profile and horizon.